This week's global capital market is turbulent, and there are frequent incidents of black swan from outside the industry. North American sizzling presidents pass the Russian gate, South America bursts out the president's bribery case, resulting in the major trading markets of the foreign exchange market, bond market, stock market, crude oil and gold The commodity market has set off a big wave, and on the domestic side, the Huagai gathers, Wanbang comes to the DPRK, a piece of hello, I have a good time to make a fortune, and the forum has been successfully completed under the blue sky and white clouds in Beijing. The atmosphere is peaceful and the scenery is good. During the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the bond market were relatively alienated from the international market, and there were some signs of stabilization. In stock index futures, the IC1705 contract, which fell the most aggressive stock index last week, rebounded 136 points this week, or 2.35%. The IF1705 contract also strived to achieve a 31-point weekly gain, while IH, which completed its recent mission, sighed. It fell slightly by 0.25% this week.
Commodities that are more closely connected with overseas countries cannot be placed outside the price changes in the international market. At the same time, domestic factors are also important to some of the important types of exchanges in London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Wall Street. The key factor. This week, the chemical products in domestic commodities are in line with the rise and fall of overseas crude oil prices, and the collective popularity has become more popular. The main contracts such as polypropylene, PVC, and methanol have closed at the top of the market with more than 8% of weekly gains. Asphalt also achieved a weekly gain of nearly 5%. Although the base metals are basically collectively standing in the queue of gains this week, most of the buyers have achieved positive returns, but most of their futures price changes are below 1%, compared with the performance of this week’s chemical brothers. It is too inferior, not to mention the accidental fall of a 3.97% lead. Agricultural products 000061, buy (000061, the pattern of stocks has changed slightly compared with last week, the weakening of the apes and the stagnation of oils and fats have made many investors who are serious about understanding and counting the seasonal supply and demand of these varieties feel quite Doubt. The relative strength of corn and corn starch in the weekly over-loaded corn auction is impressive. Of course, the independence is stronger, and the more dazzling commodities with Chinese characteristics are non-black. Steel's RB1710 contract is the leader, and the entire black community from coal to stone, from glass to steel, on the streets, set off a new wave of waves and waves. This week, it is said that there are not a few investors who are stunned by such waves.
According to the old rules, first look at the specific cross-species arbitrage. Consistent with the phenomenon of several previous inductions, the rebound of black varieties has always been the basis for flexible interactions. The various types of coal, especially thermal coal, can provide effective multi-ends for black cross-species combinations. Covering, sheltering the wind and rain for buyers, on the contrary, where the price of the disk futures is gradually developed upwards, it is usually threaded, and some varieties of hot rolls are smashed and smashed. This week's situation is no exception. In the continuous rebound process this week, RB1710 held high the banner and took the lead. It attracted 303 points and 10.30% of the weekly trend to attract the long side of the black variety strategy to the side, while the short side needs to find another way according to the change of the disk. . Don't underestimate this kind of tactical adjustment. This week, investors who operate on the black combination of their own hands should be satisfied with the corresponding changes appearing in the account in one week, but not arbitrage. It is equivalent to wrapping a cotton quilt under the big sun in the summer, and it is a certain sweat. It is only known to you. How do these black cross-breed combinations go next, and how to adjust, the arbitrageurs still have to stare at the changes of their leader RB1710. This week, the younger brother FG709 contracted under the leadership of the big brother, although there have been the performance of the head to go to the limit, but the weekly increase is only 6.09% points, relying on this point, the glass futures this variety can not be alone to take the big responsibility.
Mainly dragged down by the sharp depreciation of the Real, the expectation that Brazilian soybean merchants may concentrate on selling goods in the market scared the bulls of soybean meal, beans and soybean oil this week, and the discussion on the opening of imported meat products in the countries concerned Reminiscent of the scene in which the soybean market was exchanged for shirts and socks and footwear exports. The story of China’s export commodity market opened with the sacrifice of soybeans will not be staged again. This is a new nightmare for the upstream and downstream practitioners of the entire aquaculture feed processing industry in China, which naturally includes those in the futures market. Buyers. This week, RM709, M1709's opening of the OI709, P1709 contract spread may be the embodiment of this concern. In addition, it is added that for the domestic vegetable oil, the centralized auction of the national reserve that has lasted for several months has ended, and the related resources are being consumed. In the long run, the fundamental situation of this variety is slowly turning. In the good direction, the situation of palm oil is another scene. After the recovery of the supply of the main producing countries into the normal production season, there have been many accidents. Now the final annual output of many authoritative organizations has been revised downwards. It is. At the same time, the long-term inversion of the price of the place of origin and the domestic price still exists, and the profit window for domestic imports has not been opened, which means that the operation of a large number of imports during the summer is almost impossible to achieve, so any short-term comments on the recent contract of palm oil in the early stage and now Have been slapped. Therefore, for arbitrageurs, it is still a rich way to continue to hold the P/M or OI/RM combination, and those who easily get rid of it may have to regret it.
It can also be said that the multi-type arrangement of the cross-breeds on the oil and fat, PY9YP1 this week's spread has reached the 420 line, compared with last weekend, and advanced several dozen points. If the spread of this combination is so shockless and unpredictable every week, it will be a good deal if there is no wind and no waves. After all, their spread started from 150 points. Although the speed is very fast, it is super stable and stable, and they can be given a high rating. This choice is also the result of new changes around the market. From the perspective of statistics on the spread of palm oil and soybean oil in the past few years, it is probably not established.
The corresponding contract price difference between corn and corn starch came to a new venue this week. The CCS9 combination has effectively penetrated the -300 mark, pointing to -280, the CCS1 behind, and the weekend spread is also close to -232, so the spread is The arbitrageurs will not count on the past few weeks, but now they are all true. Is it a strategy to buy starch to buy corn? You can discuss it. It is said that some investors have taken a step forward.
In addition, this week's LPP, LV combination of the corresponding price difference has dropped, put the long-term recruit LPP1805 on the watch list, is a good proposal.
This week is the time for several exchanges in the futures market to list 1805 new contracts. Many arbitrageurs have long been planning for such institutional arrangements. Therefore, at the beginning of the week, for these new faces, the guys who set the nets under the various baits and the guns holding the shotguns were squeezed together. The disk also really live up to their efforts, such as the combination of RB1710/1805, Monday's spread compared with Friday's spread, may not even know their relatives and pro-wolves, the ugly milk dolls see the wind He grew into a handsome boy with an unusual Peugeot. The same is true for 1709 vs. 1805 of coke. The rapid development of the spread is completely unexpected. The arbitrageurs take the initiative to grab 1805 and establish the corresponding contract combination before and after. If it is not good, the combination arrangement such as M1801/1805 and RM801/RM805 can also give some arbitrage rewards on the basis of highlighting the liquidity advantage of the new contracts in the long-term, and will not let everyone waste their efforts and leave empty-handed. .
In the old combination, the black variety, except for the special Zhengzhou thermal coal, has recently presented a one-sided near-strong and weak spread structure. Buying realistic selling expectations may be the most appropriate explanation for this situation. In particular, the price of those early-stage futures is deeply discounted to the spot price, and after the price restoration before and after the May delivery, the differences between the buyers and sellers on the futures price are postponed as far as possible, and the transactions on the recent contracts are at least superficial. It is not the same. This also makes the coke's J1709/1801 price difference to touch 160 points is no longer so eye-catching. Those investors who sat on the grass last week looking up at the starry sky, grinning the wrinkles on their faces, holding such a combination At the moment, there is enough feelings, shouldn't it be flowering?
The corporate account continues to have the opportunity to move positions this week. Even if the bullish end of the arbitrage has already won the warehouse receipt, there are many things that can be done at the short end, because compressing the time of holding the warehouse receipt can improve the delivery arbitrage. Revenue, every saving day means new revenue, and such things can be done actively. As for the disposal of warehouse receipts, there are also many outlets and choices, so that the warehouse receipts can sleep in bed, and the boss who does not work will not be a smart boss unless there are other reasons and reasons.
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