Recently, the price of cotton once again exceeds the price of viscose.
The actual operation point of view, the recent cotton from the futures, spot dealers, yarn mills and other aspects reflect the current spot and futures prices are relatively high cotton, short-term adjustment is more likely. At the same time, at present, the stockpiling of non-volatility, before the listing of new cotton, the cotton market supply will be slightly tight (average monthly consumption of 600,000 tons, currently throwing reserves of 400,000 tons), in addition to the downstream cotton mills accept cotton prices and futures Adjusting the position, the support intensity of cotton at 13,000-13500 yuan/ton will be greater overall.
In the second half of the year, under the impact of new cotton planting area this year and the impact of the floods in the Yangtze River valley, the initial estimate of new cotton production is reduced by 15% or so, the overall reduction in cotton supply in the new year and the overall price increase of bulk commodities. It is expected that the cotton will maintain its relatively high position.
As for viscose staple fiber, the price of cotton viscose staple fiber was affected by the price of cotton and its own supply and demand factors. The price of the viscose staple fiber was generally increased. At present, the viscose staple fiber price is 13,700 yuan/ton, and most viscose staple fiber factories have many In terms of pre-sale volume, viscose staple fiber is expected to remain relatively stable in July. In August, although the load of some mills and fabric mills will be affected during the G20 period, at the same time, with the maintenance of Zhejiang Fulida and the gradual increase of orders in the second half of the year, this increase or decrease will be able to hedge against each other, in the second half of 9-10 months. The atmosphere in the high season is expected to continue to maintain a certain degree of continuity. There will be some uncertainty after October.
With regard to the actual use cost comparison data of cotton and viscose staple fiber, the actual cost of viscose staple fiber will be lower than cotton fiber as a whole, when the prices are approximately equal. Another possibility is that if cotton futures and spot prices continue to rise, there will be further boost and price incentives for viscose staple fibers.
From the perspective of the downstream yarns and cloths, the price difference between the same specifications of cotton yarn-human cotton yarn and cotton-gray fabric -human cotton fabric has been reduced recently, and has recently been enlarged again. The previous period was due to the low price of cotton for cotton. Product replacement viscose products are basically eliminated. At the same time, under the circumstances that the actual spread is widening, the downstream tends to use products with relatively low prices, which will benefit the cotton industry to a certain extent.
Taken together, under current circumstances where cotton prices do not fall easily, the human cotton industry still has relatively strong competitiveness in many aspects such as product substitution and conversion from the fiber-fabric link, and at the same time, due to the phased low prices, Do not rule out the possibility of increased viscose fiber use by spinning companies in some quarters, and Khmer prices as a whole favor viscose.
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