International spot gold continued to fall on Tuesday (May 2), falling to a three-week low, but the decline has eased from yesterday, rebounded in intraday trading, the US market hit a low to 1251.37 US dollars / ounce, the gold price this week has Falling more than 1%, due to the return of risk sentiment, the stock market rose, the dollar / yen also hit a six-week high. Rising stock prices have increased the opportunity cost of gold holding interest-free income, while a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive than other currency holders. No major data was released during the day, and the Reserve Bank of Australia announced on Tuesday that the cash rate target will remain unchanged at 1.5%. The resolution is in line with market expectations.
The US dollar fell slightly on Tuesday. As of press time, the US dollar index fell 0.03, or 0.03%, to 99.11 points. US stocks rose on Tuesday, the Dow rose 0.19% to 20,953.53 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 2,390.77 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 60,792.25 points. Crude oil continued to fall on Tuesday, the US oil index fell 1.06% to $48.32 per barrel; the oil index fell 0.82% to $51.07 per barrel.
Analysts said Tuesday's continued decline in gold was mainly due to a rebound in market risk appetite. On Monday, the US Congress agreed to take a package to prevent the US government from closing down by 0.9%, while the Nasdaq index hit another record high. The so-called fear indicator in the market, the VIX volatility index fell to the lowest point since 2007. Since mid-April, gold has fallen by 3%, hovering above the 200-day moving average and currently at about $1,252 per ounce. Analysts said that below this key technology level will lead to a sharp sell-off, fund managers will cut the multiple positions that have risen to the maximum in five and a half months. Gold is therefore likely to move towards the 400-day moving average, or $1224 per ounce. On Wednesday, the Fed will hold a two-day policy meeting. The results of the meeting will be announced on the same day. The US employment data will also be released this Friday. If the data is optimistic, the gold price may fall below the threshold of $1,250/oz this weekend. It is also possible to fall further to $1240 per ounce.
Tuesday's trend statement
International spot gold on Tuesday (May 1st) Asian market opened at 1256.30 US dollars / ounce in early trading, the price of gold fluctuated upwards, recording a daily high of 1257.78 US dollars / ounce to narrow the consolidation. The European market continued to consolidate, and the price of gold has increased. The intraday market has fallen sharply. After recording an intraday low of $1251.37 per ounce, the price of gold rebounded. The US gold price fluctuated slightly, and the bulls were cautious and cautiously higher, ending at $1,259.91 per ounce.
International spot gold on Tuesday (May 1st) Asian market opened at 1256.30 US / ounce in early trading, the lowest test of 1251.37 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1257.78 US dollars / ounce, closed at 1255.91 US dollars / ounce, down 0.69 US dollars, a decrease of 0.06% .
Fundamental positive factors:
1. US core PCE announced in March (May 1st) for the first time since February 2016, confirming weak US domestic demand in the first quarter. Specific data shows that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index excluding food and energy is at 3 It fell 0.1% month-on-month, the first monthly decline since September 2001, and the largest monthly decline, which increased by 0.2% in February. In the 12 months to March, the so-called core PCE price index increased by 1.6%, the smallest increase since July last year, and increased by 1.8% in February.
2. An industry report released on Monday (May 1) showed that the US manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in December and was below expectations. According to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for April was 54.8, estimated at 56.5, and 57.2 in March. The new manufacturing order index for April was 57.5, which was November. The lowest rate is 64.5 in March.
3. The US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced on Monday (May 1) that US construction spending fell again in March, as private construction investment stagnated after rising for five consecutive months. Detailed data shows that US construction spending in March fell 0.2% from the previous month to 1.218 trillion US dollars, an increase of 0.4%. Construction spending in February was revised up by 1.8%, with the previous value increasing by 0.8%. More data shows that private spending in March was unchanged from the previous month, while public spending fell by 0.9% from the previous month.
4. Last Friday (April 28), the latest report said that the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the first quarter hit a three-year low, the US Department of Commerce released data show that the US first quarter real GDP annualization The initial value of the quarterly rate increased by 0.7%, the lowest since the first quarter of 2014, with an expected growth of 1% and a pre-value increase of 2.1%.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. According to a report released by Redbook Research on Tuesday (May 2), US chain store sales grew by 2.3% in the week of April 29, up 1.7% in the previous week. More data showed that the US Red Book commercial retail sales increased by 1.3% in the week of April 29, up by 1.2% in the previous week.
2. The US Department of Commerce (DOC) released data on Thursday (April 25) showed that US new home sales jumped to an eight-month high in March, indicating that despite the sharp slowdown in the first quarter, there is still potential momentum. . US new home sales in March rose 5.8% from the previous month to 621,000, the highest level since July 2016, better than the expected 583,000.
3. In the French general election, independent candidate Mark Long made a major step toward the French president by winning the first round of voting on Sunday. According to the latest opinion poll, he is likely to beat the competition in the final round of the election. Le Pen. The news that Mark Long won the news stimulated the general growth of the European and American stock markets, the risk sentiment rose, and gold was sold off.
4. Last Thursday (April 13) data showed that the number of jobless claims in the US to April 8 fell for the third consecutive week, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000, with a seasonal adjustment of 234,000. Approaching the 44-year low reached in February, it was below the 300,000 mark for 110 consecutive weeks; in addition, the four-week average affected by temporary factors was also reduced by 3,000; various indications indicate that the US non-farm payrolls in March The sharp decline in growth rate is purely an accident, and the US job market will continue to strengthen.
Outlook outlook
1.Kitco's weekly gold survey released on Friday (April 28) showed that although most professionals and ordinary investors were bullish on gold this week, they did not exceed half of the gold trend this week. Zhou’s gold survey is still relatively rare. In the survey of professionals, 23 people participated in the survey, and 10 people thought that gold will rise this week, the proportion is 43%; 7 or 30% think that gold will fall, 6 or 26% think it will Consolidation. Market participants include gold traders, investment banks, futures traders and technical analysts. There were 1019 ordinary investors who participated in the online survey last week, of which 493 or 48% thought that gold rose this week, while 361 or 35% thought that gold would fall this week; 165 or 16% remained neutral.
2. Societe Generale 601166, stock analyst Robin Bhar said: "The risk appetite is picking up. If the Fed says it will raise interest rates further and start to reduce its balance sheet tomorrow, and the employment data released on Friday is good, the gold price may be this weekend. Below $1,250 per ounce, maybe even close to $1,240 per ounce."
3. Scotia Mocatta's technical analysts said in the report that gold is likely to move toward the 400-day moving average of $1224 per ounce.
4. With the rise in gold prices last month, the world's largest physical gold ETF, the SPDR GLD Gold position, experienced an inflow of more than 21 tons of gold, while in March it had 9 tons of gold. Jeffrey Nichols, senior economics consultant at Rosland Capital, said the April data is meaningful, and if strong demand continues, it will be a bull market signal. He pointed out, "If ETF positions continue to grow for some time, this will be a positive factor. The increase of 21 tons last month is a pretty good number."
5.FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga said in a report released on Tuesday (May 2) that the support on the technical chart of gold fell below $1,260 per ounce, which may open up more downside. Analysts said: "Although medium and long-term gold can still be safely supported, a break below $1,260 per ounce may induce sellers to push prices down to $1,240 per ounce."
6. CME Group said in a report released on Tuesday (May 2) that CME Group reported that the average daily turnover of metal in April reached 548,000 contracts, a 25% increase from the 440,000 in the same month of 2016. Metal trading volume is also much higher than the average daily net of 491,000 contracts in March. Among them, the average daily trading volume of gold futures and options increased by 30% year-on-year to 289,000 contracts, and the average daily trading volume of silver futures rose 18% year-on-year to 112,000 contracts.
7. Information website Economies.com said in a report released on Tuesday (May 2) that the price of gold was still weak in the morning, staying below the line of $1268.00 per ounce. The trading situation in the day was negative, waiting for the gold price to re-test $1250.00. / ounce, then $1240.00 / ounce, before returning to the rise. Therefore, waiting for the price of gold to fall more to get the support of the 50-day moving average, it should be pointed out that the price of gold broke through 1268.00 US dollars / ounce is the key to return to the main upward trend.
Focus on Wednesday
20:15 US ADP employment in April (10,000 people)
21:45 US April Markit service industry PMI final value
22:00 US April ISM non-manufacturing PMI
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories (10,000 barrels) from the US to April 28
02:00 The next day, the Washington Federal Reserve's FOMC announced the interest rate resolution and policy statement.
(Editor: Fang Fengjiao HF055)
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